Why the downturn is good news

Prophet Haque is being proven right and becomes the poster boy of the 'Macropocalypse'.
He called it.
(And tonight, Tom and I go to pay homage.)

Clearly, we're in a downturn.
This impending change has been on my agenda for a short while but I'm no finance maven.

So what happens now for our microclimates of digital innovation, and agency land, as the macro environment shifts and compresses?

Well I think it gets back to good old Darwinian principles:

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”

It's so not the end of the world.

In fact, I relish times like these.

It's a different challenge, and if you like:

• competition,
• radical change, and
• participating vs. observing,

..like I do, then I think it's going to be cool fun and seriously educational for all of us on the journey.

For agency world:

• Measurability sees digital marketing weather storm best (but not necesarily fine and dandy)
• Measuring services & products go up in value and importance
• Clients upskill in making sense of measurement data they already have
• The talent crisis levels off for some agencies as top performers bail out of 'good times' old skool agencies and look for new challenges
• The bigger bloated agencies cull dead wood staff and clients (as Ged rightly said)
• Enlightened traditional agencies use these times to reconfigure to offer better value to their clients (they 'adapt to survive')
• Major agency networks batten down the hatches and slow acquisitions (or do they speed up buying new adaptive players - dunno - comments please?)
• Everyone in marketing swaps the pithy truism about 'companies do best are ones that continue to market in downturn'

For start ups:

• The too many startups chasing too few ad dollars get weeded out
• VCs become more selective
• Startups get real again, tiny teams and real revenues over Calacanis logic
• Innovation thrives on constraints, which helps focus, vs. abundance, which distracts

For others:

• Pressure on classical print advertising (against more measurable digital forms) sees some major print brands go under, starved of all revenue streams

I'm well up for a downturn.
Personally I feel it will encourage me to be really clear in my own head and to my clients about the value that we add to their businesses. I think it provides a knife of focus to cut through the clutter of 'we should be doing this stuff...shouldn't we..?'. It boils down to a yes or a no, with our job being to prove the yes.
It will encourage all of our businesses to get sharper and smarter at how we do stuff.
It will weed out weaker competitors - particularly the bloated, less adaptive, and play directly to the strengths of Brighton's digital community of nimble smart middle- and small-sized agencies.

Adapt or die - am I right or wrong?

Comments

[Drew]

Adapt or die indeed. I know a certain agency that launched in a downturn and is still here to tell the tale.

[Will McInnes]

You guys or us or both of us?

[justin hunt]

Good attitude Will. I don't like to trade in doom and gloom. And I agree the nimble creative and innovative agencies, who provide good value for money, and good work and care about their customers will excel.

[Paul Fabretti]

And as I have said before Will, any agency that provides the tools for marketers to spend less and reach more people is SURE to make it through.

Rock on.